Climate change drives habitat contraction of a nocturnal arboreal marsupial at its physiological limits

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3262
• Publication Date: 2020-10-08T18:05:46Z
• Authors: Benjamin Wagner; Patrick J. Baker; Stephen B. Stewart; Linda F. Lumsden; Jenny L. Nelson; Jemma K. Cripps; Louise K. Durkin; Michael P. Scroggie; Craig R. Nitschke
• Keywords: Aridification; Arboreal locomotion

Abstract Increasing impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbances on natural ecosystems are leading to population declines or extinctions many species worldwide. In Australia, recent has caused in some native fauna. The projected increase mean annual temperature by up 4°C the end 21st century is expected exacerbate these trends. greater glider ( Petauroides volans ), Australia’s largest gliding marsupial, widely distributed along eastern coast, but recently experienced drastic numbers. Its association with hollow‐bearing trees, used for nesting, made it an important conservation old‐growth forest ecosystems. Fires timber harvesting have been identified as threats species. Greater gliders disappeared however from areas that neither raising questions about role other factors their decline. A unique physiology strict Eucalyptus diet make them vulnerable high temperatures low water availability. As such, conditions may drive habitat selection trends be contributing observed declines. Using presence:absence data across its distribution Victoria, coupled spatial temporal resolution machine‐learning modeling, we tested influence climatic, topographic, edaphic, biotic, disturbance variables occupancy suitability. We found variables, particularly those related aridity extreme weather conditions, such number nights warmer than 20°C, were highly significant predictors occurrence. Climatic associated suitability changed over time, increasing much southeastern distribution. These changes climate closely aligned this region. At higher elevation, where at densities, become wetter, which improving quality. growing significance they will increasingly refugia coming decades. Protecting critical facilitating broader landscape becomes less hospitable under future change.