An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13449
• Publication Date: 2019-03-26T11:31:39Z
• Authors: Roberta Padulano; Alfredo Reder; Guido Rianna
• Keywords: Hindcast; Quantile

Abstract In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in extreme precipitation regime, with rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The research, focused on analysis of extremes basis model simulations and rainfall observations, structured several consecutive steps. first step, all dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for current period 1971–2000 future 2071–2100, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. second significance change effects statistically tested comparing simulated data bias‐correction performed means a novel based combination simple delta quantile mapping, compliance storm index method. third two different models proposed, accounting variabilities given use their hindcast performances. Finally, used build intensity–duration–frequency curves, early warning system thresholds area interest evaluated.