Future extreme temperature and its impact on rice yield in China

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.5125
• Publication Date: 2017-05-19T10:33:51Z
• Authors: Zhao Zhang; Yi Chen; Chenzhi Wang; Pin Wang; Fulu Tao
• Keywords: Yangtze river; Representative Concentration Pathways; Baseline (sea)

ABSTRACT Rice in China is increasingly suffered from extreme temperature stress ( ETS ) with ongoing climate change. It projected that would increase notably across the world future. However, spatio‐temporal change of main rice planting areas still unclear; and future yield loss caused by YL has seldom been investigated quantitatively. In this study, we first under 20 scenarios consisting five global models four Representative Carbon Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). Then, using a process‐based crop model MCWLA ‐Rice), its 30 sets parameters scenarios, conducted super‐ensemble assessment to investigate over 2020–2049, relative baseline period (1980–2009), China. The results showed that, an increased heat decreased cold be expected for most areas. As result, large spatial variability future, including severely region I (northeastern China, single rice) IV (southern early rice), but III (the middle lower reaches Yangtze River, late rice). Comparing both , mainly while less II (southwestern Finally, some adaptation measures were proposed ‐sensitive Our findings are useful develop effective policies cope risk relieve disasters.