The Climate‐system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere‐resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2743
• Publication Date: 2016-01-18T13:19:03Z
• Authors: Amy H. Butler; Alberto Arribas; Maria Athanassiadou; Johanna Baehr; Natalia Calvo; Andrew Charlton‐P...; Michel Déqué; Daniela I. V. Dom...; Kristina Fröhlich; Harry Hendon; Yukiko Imada; Masayoshi Ishii; Maddalen Iza; Alexey Yu. Karpechko; Arun Kumar; Craig MacLachlan; William J. Merryf...; Wolfgang A. Müller; Alan O'Neill; Adam A. Scaife; John Scinocca; Michael Sigmond; Timothy N. Stockdale; Tamaki Yasuda
• Keywords: Quasi-biennial oscillation; Forcing (mathematics); Middle latitudes

Using an international, multi‐model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate‐system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve stratosphere and its dynamics (‘high‐top’) do not (‘low‐top’). We evaluate hindcasts are initialized November, examine model biases how they relate to (December–March) forecast skill. unable detect more high‐top ensemble‐mean than low‐top forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation, but performance varies widely. Increasing ensemble size clearly increases for a given model. then two major processes involving stratosphere–troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Quasi‐Biennial (QBO)) predictive on intraseasonal time‐scales, particularly over Eurasia regions. High‐top tend have realistic stratospheric response Niño QBO compared models. Enhanced conditional high latitudes region during winters with conditions suggests possible role pathway.