Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

• DOI: 10.1007/s00024-019-02260-x
• Publication Date: 2019-06-28T09:04:35Z
• Authors: A. Scala; S. Lorito; F. Romano; S. Murphy; J. Selva; R. Basili; A. Babeyko; A. Herrero; A. Hoechner; F. Løvholt; F. E. Maesano; P. Perfetti; M. M. Tiberti; R. Tonini; M. Volpe; G. Davies; G. Festa; W. Power; A. Piatanesi; A. Cirella
• Keywords: seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment; stochastic seismic slip distributions; tsunami source models; Tsunamis; seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment; 550; Tsunamis; 13. Climate action; tsunami source models; stochastic seismic slip distributions; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant sources. Large concentrated in shallow patches was observed recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due dynamic amplification near free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose method for incorporating enhanced subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic excess at depths over one more seismic cycles. uses classic k−2 stochastic distributions, augmented amplification. It is necessary deep events with lower occur often than ones amplified balance long-term cumulative slip. evaluate impact this approach on central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting realistic 3D geometry three zones, using it model ~ 150,000 $$M_{w}$$ from 6.0 9.0. combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent modeling, epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. found that mean curves obtained our show probabilities larger inundation heights as compared derived depth-independent distributions. Our completely general can be applied any zone world.