Nomogram based on MRI for preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression in patients with intrahepatic mass cholangiocarcinoma

• DOI: 10.1007/s00261-022-03719-7
• Publication Date: 2022-11-19T11:02:58Z
• Authors: Xiang Chen; Jingfen Zhu; Zigui Zou; Mingzhan Du; Junjian Xie; Yujie Ye; Ling Zhang; Yonggang Li
• Keywords: Cholangiocarcinoma; Nomograms; 03 medical and health sciences; Ki-67 Antigen; Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic; 0302 clinical medicine; Bile Duct Neoplasms; Humans; Hepatobiliary; Magnetic Resonance Imaging; Retrospective Studies

Abstract Objectives To validate a new nomogram based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for pre-operative prediction of Ki-67 expression in patients with intrahepatic mass cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC).

Methods A total of 78 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed IMCC who underwent pre-operative gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid enhanced MRI between 2016 and 2022 were enrolled in the training and validation group (53 patients and 25 patients, respectively). Images including qualitative, quantitative MRI features and clinical data were evaluated. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to select the independent predictors and establish different predictive models. The predictive performance was validated by operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The validation cohort was used to test the predictive performance of the optimal model. The nomogram was constructed with the optimal model.

Results In the training cohort, independent predictors obtained from the combined model were DWI (OR 1822.741; 95% CI 6.189, 536,781.805; P = 0.01) and HBP enhancement pattern (OR 14.270; 95% CI 1.044, 195.039; P = 0.046). The combined model showed the good performance (AUC 0.981; 95% CI 0.952, 1.000) for predicting Ki-67 expression. In the validation cohort, The combined model (AUC 0.909; 95% CI 0.787, 1.000)showed the best performance compared to the clinical model (AUC 0.448; 95% CI 0.196, 0.700) and MRI model (AUC 0.770; 95% CI 0.570, 0.970).

Conclusion This new nomogram has a good performance in predicting Ki-67 expression in patients with IMCC, which could help the decision-making of the patients’ therapy strategies.

Graphical abstract