Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6
• Publication Date: 2011-04-04T00:24:56Z
• Authors: A. B. A. Slangen; C. A. Katsman; R. S. W. van de Wal; L. L. A. Vermeersen; R. E. M. Riva
• Keywords: Future sea level; Last Glacial Maximum

Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative (RSL) can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century RSL estimates based on an ensemble coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), same were used their projections mean rise. The contribution small glaciers and ice caps calculated with a glacier model, volume-area approach. contributions Greenland Antarctic sheets are obtained IPCC AR4 estimates. distribution resulting land mass changes then by solving equation rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, add pattern steric models estimate effect Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. reveals that many regions will experience differ For A1B ensemble, values range −3.91 0.79 m, 0.47 m. Although amplitude differs, spatial patterns similar all spread dominated contribution, at least processes included this study. Extreme loss scenarios may alter picture. individual sites, find standard deviation combined approximately 10 cm, regardless scenario.