Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1339-7
• Publication Date: 2012-04-20T07:55:28Z
• Authors: H. E. M. Meier; R. Hordoir; H. C. Andersson; C. Dieterich; K. Eilola; B. G. Gustafsson; A. Höglund; S. Schimanke
• Keywords: Biogeochemical Cycle; Biogeochemistry; Representative Concentration Pathways

The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model performed. Four scenarios with four nutrient load ranging from pessimistic business-as-usual to more optimistic case following Action Plan (BSAP). Annual seasonal mean changes parameters ecological quality indicators describing environmental status like bottom oxygen, phytoplankton concentrations Secchi depths studied. Assuming present-day rivers, loads land increase during twenty first century all investigated scenario due increased volume flows caused by net precipitation area. In addition, remineralization rates water temperatures causing enhanced sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role biogeochemistry eutrophicated seas partly counteracting reduction efforts BSAP.