Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8
• Publication Date: 2014-12-02T11:32:04Z
• Authors: Giuseppe Zappa; Matthew K. Hawcroft; Len Shaffrey; Emily Black; David J. Brayshaw
• Keywords: Extratropical cyclone; Cyclogenesis

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence these projections, it is important physically understand how this occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter changes extratropical cyclones 17 CMIP5 models. In each model, are objectively tracked simple approach applied identify associated cyclone. allows us decompose into contribution number of amount generated by results show that strongly related decrease cyclones. However, from cyclone also locally important: East they amplify trend cyclones, while North compensate for it. Some processes determine opposing intensity responses regions investigated exploring inter-model spread.