What caused the increase of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the period of 2011–2020?

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06299-w
• Publication Date: 2022-05-19T05:02:37Z
• Authors: Haili Wang; Chunzai Wang
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 16. Peace & justice; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Based on satellite era data after 1979, we find that the tropical cyclone (TC) variations in the Western North Pacific (WNP) can be divided into three-periods: a high-frequency period from 1979-1997 (P1), a low-frequency period from 1998-2010 (P2), and a high-frequency period from 2011-2020 (P3). Previous studies have focused on WNP TC activity during P1 and P2. Here we use observational data to study the WNP TC variation and its possible mechanisms during P3. Compared with P2, more TCs during P3 are due to the large-scale atmospheric environmental conditions of positive relative vorticity, negative vertical velocity and weak vertical wind shear. Warmer SST is found during P3, which is favorable for TC genesis. The correlation between the WNP TC frequency and SST shows a significant positive correlation around the equator and a significant negative correlation around 36°N, which is similar to the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The correlation coefficient between the PDO and TC frequency is 0.71, significant at 99% confidence level. The results indicate that the increase of the WNP TC frequency during 2011-2020 is associated with the phase transition of the PDO and warmer SST. Therefore, more attention should be given to the warmer SST and PDO phase when predicting WNP TC activity.