Conducting volcanic ash cloud exercises: practising forecast evaluation procedures and the pull-through of scientific advice to the London VAAC

• DOI: 10.1007/s00445-024-01717-9
• Publication Date: 2024-06-12T03:36:30Z
• Authors: Frances Beckett; Sara Barsotti; Ralph Burton; Fabio Dioguardi; Sam Engwell; Matthew Hort; Nina Kristiansen; Sue Loughlin; Anton Muscat; Martin Osborne; Cameron Saint; John Stevenson; Declan Valters; Claire Witham
• Keywords: Volcanic ash; Advice (programming)

Abstract The London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provides forecasts on the expected presence of volcanic ash in atmosphere to mitigate risk aviation. It is fundamentally important that operational capability regularly tested through exercises, guarantee an effective response event. We have developed exercises which practise pull-through scientific advice into VAAC, forecast evaluation process, and decision-making procedures discussions needed for generating best possible under real-time conditions. VAAC dispersion model are evaluated against observations. To test this exercise, we must create observation data a hypothetical new methodologies using simulated satellite lidar retrievals. These observations enable us our ability interpret, compare, evaluate output Forecast can benefit from understanding how different choices setup (input parameters), physics, driving meteorological impact predicted extent concentration ash. Through practised comparing simulations generated models, setups, data, supplied by institutions. Our also communication interaction between Met Office (UK) scientists supporting external experts, enabling knowledge exchange interpretation observations, as strive deliver aviation industry stakeholders. In paper, outline exercise methodology, including use development strategy compare modelling systems. lessons learnt, benefits challenges conducting provide at VAAC.