A quantitative model for estimating risk from multiple interacting natural hazards: an application to northeast Zhejiang, China

• DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1250-6
• Publication Date: 2016-04-18T04:29:20Z
• Authors: Baoyin Liu; Yim Ling Siu; Gordon Mitchell
• Keywords: Natural hazard

Multi-hazard risk assessment is a major concern in analysis, but most approaches do not consider all hazard interactions when calculating possible losses. We address this problem by developing an improved quantitative model—Model for multi-hazard Risk with consideration of Hazard Interaction (MmhRisk-HI). This model calculates the loss caused multiple hazards, explicit interaction between those hazards. There are two main components to model. In first, based on hazard-forming environment, relationships among hazards classified into four types calculation exceedance probability occurrence. second, Bayesian network used calculate different probabilities. A map can then be drawn addressing occurrence and corresponding loss. was applied northeast Zhejiang, China validated comparison against observed sequence. The validation results show that more effectively represent real world, modelled outputs, reliable. outputs additionally help identify areas at greatest risk, allows determination factors contribute hence provide useful further information planners decision-makers concerned mitigation.