A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

• DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0539-5
• Publication Date: 2012-03-22T13:04:21Z
• Authors: Pilvi Siljamo; Mikhail Sofiev; Elena Filatova; Łukasz Grewling; Siegfried Jäger; Ekaterina Khoreva; Tapio Linkosalo; Sara Ortega Jimenez; Hanna Ranta; Auli Rantio-Lehti...; Anton Svetlov; Laura Veriankaite; Ekaterina Yakovleva; Jaakko Kukkonen
• Keywords: Atmospheric Science; Original Paper; kukinta; 550; Ecology; Atmosphere; Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis; ta1183; Flowers; Models, Theoretical; kaukokulkeuma; 01 natural sciences; aerobiologia; Europe; fenologia; Pollen; koivu; siitepöly; Weather; Betula; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

An evaluation of performance the System for Integrated modeLling Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) in application to birch pollen dispersion is presented. The system described a companion paper whereas current study evaluates model sensitivity details emission module parameterisation and meteorological input data. most important parameters are highlighted. reference year considered analysis 2006. It shown that capable predicting about two-thirds allergenic alerts, with odds ratio exceeding 12 best setup. Several other statistics corroborate these estimations. Low-pollen concentration days also predicted correctly more than cases. experiences certain difficulties only intermediate concentrations. demonstrated parameter near-surface temperature, bias which can easily jeopardise results. random fluctuations temperature much lower. Other at various stages development, release, precipitation ambient humidity, as well wind direction.