High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1658-9
• Publication Date: 2015-10-26T04:15:25Z
• Authors: Joachim Fallmann; Sven Wagner; Stefan Emeis
• Keywords: Heat wave; Climate extremes

Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, precipitation extremes and duration winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas Central Europe. The projected change impact is assessed 11 based on indices a future (2021–2050) compared reference (1971–2000) using IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These calculated daily maximum, minimum mean temperatures well amounts. By this, vulnerability these conditions be investigated. number single hot days, tropical nights heavy events increase near future. In addition, frost days significantly decreased. Probability density functions monthly summer show an 95th percentile about 1–3 °C with period. cooling decrease heating degree indicate possible energy consumption under