Long-term trend and variability in surface temperatures over Emilia-Romagna from 1962 to 2022

• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04994-8
• Publication Date: 2024-05-15T08:02:05Z
• Authors: Davide Sabatani; Valentina Pavan; Federico Grazzini; Gabriele Antolini
• Keywords: 0207 environmental engineering; climate change; temperature extremes; precipitation rate; relative humidity trend; regional climate.; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Scientific interest is increasingly drawn towards regional meteorological extremes, given their impacts on populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These extremes are shaped by complex interactions between internal climate variability long-term trends. The aim of the present work to evaluate changes in high-frequency influence trends frequency occurrences with a focus surface temperatures over period from 1962 2022 Emilia-Romagna, region Northern Italy. Daily data 2 m air averaged retrieved ERACLITO, high-resolution analysis. distributions daily temperature anomalies show general broadening 1992–2022 respect 1962–1991. This true for maximum, minimum, mean temperatures, especially during summer spring seasons. A significant warming trend 0.37 °C/decade detected annual considered. study completed comparison observed record-breaking events, hypothetical stationary distribution theoretical derivation that accounts variability. During last decade, count extreme events 1.26, which yields likelihood 86% this owed rather than interannual Idealized experiments demonstrate expected future decades depend rate level. Finally, an analysis performed at seasonal level shows majority (minority) record occurring (spring)