Past, present, and future geographic range of an oro-Mediterranean Tertiary relict: The juniperus drupacea case study

• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-019-01489-5
• Publication Date: 2019-04-24T10:07:56Z
• Authors: Łukasz Walas; Karolina Sobierajska; Tolga Ok; Ali A. Dönmez; Salih S. Kanoğlu; Magda Bou Dagher-...; Bouchra Douaihy; Angel Romo; Jean Stephan; Anna K. Jasińska; Adam Boratyński
• Keywords: Last Glacial Maximum; Environmental niche modelling; Herbarium; Overexploitation

Juniperus drupacea is a unique relict species found in the mountains of southern Greece, Turkey, and western Syria Lebanon. The aim this study was to describe natural range juniper by determining current locations its populations predict theoretical for based on current, past, future climatic conditions. We used data from literature, herbarium materials, our unpublished field notes (about 500 georeferenced points total) determine distribution J. (realized niche). To suitable conditions with program MaxEnt, we WordClim database, which allowed estimation potential niche. niche much wider during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted Eemian interglacial period. Depending climate scenario, could become endangered due changes. Considering relatively geographic decreasing numbers localities where it found, conservation strategies should be adopted allow preservation genetic morphological diversity.