Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

• DOI: 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
• Publication Date: 2021-01-14T06:49:47Z
• Authors: Thu Hien Dao; Frédéric Docquier; Mathilde Maurel; Pierre Schaus
• Keywords: JEL: O - Economic Development; and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration; 330; JEL: F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F22 - International Migration; and Forecasts; JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; 0502 economics and business; Innovation; [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance; Vacancies; Macroeconomic Effects; International migration; Original Paper; JEL: F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F24 - Remittances; 05 social sciences; 1. No poverty; JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration; [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance; Technological Change; JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility; 300; JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers; Migration prospects; and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers; World economy; Inequality; Unemployment; JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J11 - Demographic Trends; 8. Economic growth

This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants’ countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.