Potential establishment and ecological effects of bighead and silver carp in a productive embayment of the Laurentian Great Lakes

• DOI: 10.1007/s10530-020-02263-z
• Publication Date: 2020-04-21T11:03:02Z
• Authors: Lori N. Ivan; Doran M. Mason; Hongyan Zhang; Edward S. Rutherford; Tim Hunter; Shaye Sable; Aaron T. Adamack; Kenneth Rose
• Keywords: Bighead carp; Hypophthalmichthys; Forage fish

Bighead carp H. nobilis and silver Hypothalmichthys molitrix (collectively bigheaded carps, BHC) are invasive planktivorous fishes that threaten to enter the Laurentian Great Lakes disrupt food webs. To assess likelihood of BHC establishment their likely effects on web Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, we developed a multi-species individual-based bioenergetics model tracks individual bighead carp, four key fish species, seven prey biomass groups over 50 years. The daily consumption, mortality growth all individuals dynamics interacting pools. We ran simulation scenarios determine under initial introductions from 5 1 million yearling older individuals, assuming variable age-0 survival rates (high, intermediate, low). bounded as recruitment continues be one biggest unknowns. also simulated potential an established population or variation in survival. Results indicated few 10 could establish high intermediate survival, but at least 100,000 were needed low had negative plankton biomass, which increased with density. However, piscivorous walleye Sander vitreus appeared benefit establishment. for affect ecologically economically important species Bay is cause concern.