Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0561-y
• Publication Date: 2012-08-24T05:08:01Z
• Authors: Fabio R. Marin; James W. Jones; Abraham Singels; Frederick Royce; Eduardo D. Assad; Giampaolo Q. Pell...; Flávio Justino
• Keywords: DSSAT; Representative Concentration Pathways; Water Use Efficiency

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based downscaled outputs two general circulation models (PRECIS CSIRO) a growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate baseline four future scenarios for stalk yield 2050s. The calibrated main cultivar currently grown Brazil five field experiments under several soil conditions. sensitivity simulated fresh mass (SFM) air temperature, CO2 concentration [CO2] rainfall also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses [CO2], temperature variations were consistent with literature. There increases usage efficiency (WUE) all scenarios. On average, current area State São Paulo, would increase 24 % WUE 34 rainfed sugarcane. rise is relevant because concern about supply Brazil. Considering technological improvement rate, projected yields 2050 ranged from 96 129 t ha−1, which are respectively 15 59 higher than state average yield.