A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3
• Publication Date: 2016-11-09T09:58:14Z
• Authors: Simon N. Gosling; Jamal Zaherpour; Nick J. Mount; Fred F. Hattermann; Rutger Dankers; Berit Arheimer; Lutz Breuer; Jie Ding; Ingjerd Haddeland; Rohini Kumar; Dipangkar Kundu; Junguo Liu; Ann van Griensven; Ted I. E. Veldkamp; Tobias Vetter; Xiaoyan Wang; Xinxin Zhang
• Keywords: Ensemble average

We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and catchment-scale (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, Mississippi, Niger, Rhine Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual (MAR) four indicators high low extreme flows are compared between two ensembles. The median values with three different scenarios global-mean warming (1, 2 3 °C above pre-industrial levels) generally similar ensembles, although spread is often larger for Glob-HM ensemble. In addition normally than difference medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence projected (decrease), Tagus (decrease) Lena (increase) warming, sign magnitude other catchments unclear. Our model results highlight these particular, mitigation, which limits temperature rise to below preindustrial levels, could avoid some hazards be seen higher magnitudes warming.