Communicating future climate projections of precipitation change

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03118-9
• Publication Date: 2021-05-27T03:33:33Z
• Authors: Joseph Daron; Susanne Lorenz; Andrea Taylor; Suraje Dessai
• Keywords: visualisation; 550; 13. Climate action; 0207 environmental engineering; ensembles; 02 engineering and technology; 551; uncertainties; interpretation

Abstract Understanding how precipitation may change in the future is important for guiding climate adaptation. Climate models are primary tools providing information on change, though communicating and interpreting results of different model simulations challenging. Using an online survey, completed by producers users information, we compare evaluate interpretations approaches used to summarise visualise projections. Results reveal large differences arising from choices made summarising visualising data. Respondents interpret significantly smaller ranges when provided with multi-model ensemble mean or percentile which commonly projections, compared about full ensemble. The found be particularly misleading, even show agreement sign change. We conclude that these can lead distorted impact adaptation policy decision-making. To help improve interpretation use projections decision-making, regular testing visualisations sustained engagement target audiences required determine most effective appropriate visualisation approaches.