A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z
• Publication Date: 2024-09-05T08:02:33Z
• Authors: Grant L. Harley; Justin T. Maxwell; Karen E. King; Shelly A. Rayback; Edward R. Cook; Christopher Hansen; R. Stockton Maxwell; Frederick Reinig; Jan Esper; Tsun Fung Au; Ellen V. Bergan; Katherine E. Brings; Nick Koenig; Benjamin Lockwood; Richard D. Thaxton
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Circulation (fluid dynamics)

Abstract Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of past ca. 120 years and dearth temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south <50 °N. We develop a network 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across Mid-Atlantic Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented multi-centennial temperature records. use this to reconstruct mean March-September air back 1461 CE based on model that explains 62% variance 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer are consistently warmest within context 561 exceeding 1951−1980 +1.3 °C. Cool summers were frequently volcanically forced, with significant ( p <0.05) departures associated 80% largest tropical n =13) extratropical =15) eruptions since Yet, we find more identified cool events likely unforced volcanism either related stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via associations regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, 300-hpa meridional zonal wind vectors. Expanding west combining it existing proxies North America an important next step toward producing gridded reconstruction field for America.