Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005

• DOI: 10.1007/s10712-024-09849-5
• Publication Date: 2024-07-29T13:01:15Z
• Authors: Maria Z. Hakuba; Sébastien Fourest; Tim Boyer; Benoit Meyssignac; James A. Carton; Gaël Forget; Lijing Cheng; Donata Giglio; Gregory C. Johnson; Seiji Kato; Rachel E. Killick; Nicolas Kolodziej...; Mikael Kuusela; Felix Landerer; William Llovel; Ricardo Locarnini; Norman Loeb; John M. Lyman; Alexey Mishonov; Peter Pilewskie; James Reagan; Andrea Storto; Thea Sukianto; Karina von Schuck...
• Keywords: [SDE] Environmental Sciences; 550; Earth's energy imbalance; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; Reanalysis; 551; 01 natural sciences; GEWEX Legos-Magellium; [SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]; Ocean heat content; Argo; GEWEX; [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDU.STU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; Earth’s energy imbalance , Ocean heat content, Radiation budget, Reanalysis, Argo, GEWEX; Radiation budget; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings feedback. To date, most precise measurements EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at top atmosphere (TOA), while quantification absolute magnitude facilitated heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% uptake manifests as an increase in ocean content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from situ satellite observations, well reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties reconcile current knowledge magnitude, variability trends. Here, 21 (OHU) rates intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 0.96 0.08 W m −2 (2005–2019), spread that slightly reduced when unequal sampling accounted for, largely attributable differing source data, mapping methods quality control procedures. rate varies substantially − 0.03 0.13 (reanalysis product) 1.1 0.6 dec −1 (satellite product). Products either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill data-sparse regions based on additional physical (some reanalysis hybrid products) tend track than purely situ-based products. This paper also examines zonal trends TOA fluxes data gaps trend estimates. community aims refine their assessment studies, forge path toward best practices, e.g., uncertainty quantification, formulate recommendations for future activities.