Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

• DOI: 10.1007/s10712-024-09859-3
• Publication Date: 2024-11-06T08:08:11Z
• Authors: Richard A. Wood; Jonathan A. Baker; Grégory Beaugrand; Jacqueline Boutin; Alessandra Conversi; Reik V. Donner; Ivy Frenger; Eric Goberville; Hakase Hayashida; Wolfgang Koeve; Karin Kvale; Angela Landolfi; Wieslaw Maslowski; Andreas Oschlies; Anastasia Romanou; Christopher J. Somes; Thomas F. Stocker; Didier Swingedouw
• Keywords: Earth system science; Tipping point (physics); Ocean observations

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess needs and opportunities Earth Observation (EO, here understood refer satellite observations) inform society in responding risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding identify specific EO related modelling each these elements. draw out some generic that apply across several These common include importance maintaining long-term, consistent time series; combine data consistently situ types subsurface), example through assimilation; reduce work mismatches resolution (in both directions) between models datasets. Our analysis shows developing EO, prediction systems together, strengths limitations each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring early warning tipping, development next generation models.