Does agricultural intensification cause tipping points in ecosystem services?

• DOI: 10.1007/s10980-021-01321-8
• Publication Date: 2021-08-25T06:03:11Z
• Authors: Stephen C. L. Watson; Adrian C. Newton; Lucy E. Ridding; Paul M. Evans; Steven Brand; Morag McCracken; Arjan S. Gosal; James M. Bullock
• Keywords: Tipping point (physics); Scenario analysis

Abstract Context Agricultural intensification is being widely pursued as a policy option to improve food security and human development. Yet, there need understand the impact of agricultural on provision multiple ecosystem services, evaluate possible occurrence tipping points. Objectives To quantify assess long-term spatial dynamics service (ES) in landscape undergoing at four time points 1930, 1950, 1980 2015. Determine if thresholds or ES may have occurred are any detectable impacts economic development employment. Methods We used InVEST suite software models together with series historical land cover maps an Input–Output model these over 85-year period county Dorset, southern England. Results indicated that trends were often non-linear, highlighting potential for abrupt changes occur response slight underlying drivers. Despite fluctuations different ES, overall activity increased almost linearly during study interval, line increase productivity. Conclusions Such non-linear will be avoided future by approaches aiming deliver sustainable intensification. A number positive feedback mechanisms identified suggest could considered However, further research into feedbacks required fully determine systems.