Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways

• DOI: 10.1007/s11056-020-09789-z
• Publication Date: 2020-05-09T01:02:47Z
• Authors: Jaana Korhonen; Prakash Nepal; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Frederick W. Cubbage
• Keywords: Global Change; Investment

Abstract There is rising global interest in growing more trees order to meet population, climate change, and wood energy needs. Using recently published data on planted forests by country, we estimated relationships between per capita income forest area that are useful for understanding prospective futures through 2100 under various United Nations Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change-inspired Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Under all SSPs, projections indicate increasing trends the next three four decades declining thereafter, commensurate with quadratic functions employed. Our somewhat less total future than prior linear forecasts. Compared 293 million ha (Mha) of globally 2015, SSP5 (a vision a wealthier world) projects largest increase (to 334 Mha, 14% gain) 2055, followed SSP2 continuation historical socio-economic trends, 327 or an 11% gain), SSP3 poorer world, 319 9% gain). The projected major world regions differ from consistent differing development trajectories those regions. based empirical FAO past 25 years, as well other researchers, suggest achieving much ambitious targets proposed will require exceptional land investment supply shifts.