Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9180-8
• Publication Date: 2007-11-23T14:24:32Z
• Authors: S. C. R. Allen; D. J. M. Greenslade
• Keywords: Natural hazard; Proxy (statistics); Numerical models; Early warning system

A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.