Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1181-9
• Publication Date: 2014-06-13T09:33:53Z
• Authors: Konstantinos Lept...; Eleftheria Papadi...; Beata Orlecka-Sikora; Vasileios Karakostas
• Keywords: Smoothing; Seismic risk; Natural hazard

The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers stressing history to forecast reference rate evolution. basic catalog was divided according specific criteria into four subsets, correspond areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and rates are individually calculated for each subset. forecasting periods selected be inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip considered, along constant alter of earthquake production. These expressed by probability density function smoothed over study area different degrees smoothing. influence parameters model efficiency explored evaluating Pearson linear correlation coefficient simulated observed occurrence its 95 % confidence limits. Application parameter values attempted sensitivity fit real data tested. Despite ambiguities difficulties involved experimental value determination, results demonstrate that present formulation available datasets sufficient enough contribute seismic hazard assessment starting from point such far back time.