Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6
• Publication Date: 2018-09-26T02:42:29Z
• Authors: Ioannis Kougkoulos; Simon J. Cook; Laura A. Edwards; Leon J. Clarke; Elias Symeonakis; Jason M. Dortch; Kathleen Nesbitt
• Keywords: Glacial lake; Natural hazard; Flash flood; Dam failure

The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities infrastructure. Previous research identified three potentially dangerous lakes Andes, but no attempt yet made model GLOF inundation from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs stereo tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images drive hydrodynamic flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). was tested against field observations 2009 Keara, Cordillera Apolobamba, shown reproduce realistic depths inundation. then used GLOFs Pelechuco (Cordillera Apolobamba) Laguna Arkhata Glaciar Real). In total, six villages could be affected if all burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran for scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), give range ~ 1100 2200 people flooding; between 800 2100 exposed floods with depth ≥ 2 m, life threatening cause significant damage suggest that represent greatest due higher numbers who live potential paths, hence, two should priority managers.