Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources

• DOI: 10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9
• Publication Date: 2020-06-24T17:03:40Z
• Authors: Gui-Quan Sun; Shi-Fu Wang; Ming-Tao Li; Li Li; Juan Zhang; Wei Zhang; Zhen Jin; Guo-Lin Feng
• Keywords: 0301 basic medicine; Original Paper; 03 medical and health sciences; Control and Systems Engineering; Applied Mathematics; Mechanical Engineering; Aerospace Engineering; Ocean Engineering; Electrical and Electronic Engineering; 3. Good health

Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.