A nomogram to predict ventricular thrombus in dilated cardiomyopathy patients

• DOI: 10.1007/s11239-023-02846-2
• Publication Date: 2023-06-23T20:19:31Z
• Authors: Xiao-Lei Li; Dilare Adi; Yun Wu; Aibibanmu Aizezi; Yan-Peng Li; Munawar Kerem; Xian Wei; Fen liu; Xiang Ma; Yi-Tong Ma
• Keywords: Nomogram; Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Abstract Background: VT (Ventricular Thrombus) is a serious complication of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Our goal to develop nomogram for personalized prediction incident in DCM patients. Methods: 1267 patients (52.87 ± 11.75 years old, 73.8% male) were analyzed retrospectively from January 01, 2015, December 31, 2020. A model risk assessment was established using minimum absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) multivariate logistic regression analysis, its effectiveness validated by internal guidance. The evaluated the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, decision analysis (DCA). We compared performance predicting between CHA2DS2, CHA2DS2- VASc or ATRIA AUC, akaike information criterion (AIC), bayesian (BIC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination (IDI). Results: 89 (7.02%) experienced VT. Multivariate revealed that age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), uric acid (UA), N-terminal precursor B-type diuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), D-dimer (DD) important independent predictors correctly separates with without VT, an optimistic C score 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90–0.94) good (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 = 11.51, P 0.12). showed improved CHA2DS2-VASc (all < 0.05). Conclusions: novel demonstrated better than presenting scores improvement