Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate

• DOI: 10.1007/s11430-010-4109-6
• Publication Date: 2011-01-11T08:41:43Z
• Authors: Zhi Wei; HuiJun Jin; JianMing Zhang; ShaoPeng Yu; XuJun Han; YanJun Ji; RuiXia He; XiaoLi Chang
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

combined with the unsteady-state heat conduction model to simulate permafrost temperatures at present, and to predict those after 50 and 100 a. The results indicate that at present, sporadic permafrost occurs in the zones with MAGSTs of 1.5°C or colder, and there would still be a significant presence of permafrost in the zones with the present MAGSTs of 0.5°C or colder after 50 a, and in those of 0.5°C or colder after 100 a. Furthermore, the total areal extent of permafrost would decrease from 2.57×10 5 km 2 at present to 1.84×10 5 km 2 after 50 a and to 1.29×10 5 km 2 after 100 a, i.e., a reduction of 28.4% and 49.8% in the permafrost area, respectively. Also the permafrost would degrade more substantially in the east than in the west. Regional warming and thinning of permafrost would also occur. The area of stable permafrost (mean annual ground temperature, or MAGT≤1.0°C) would decrease from present 1.07×10 5 to 8.8×10 4 km 2 after 50 a, and further decrease to 5.6×10 4 km 2 after 100 a. As a result, the unstable permafrost and seasonally frozen ground would expand, and the southern limit of permafrost would shift significantly northwards. The changes in the permafrost environment may adversely affect on ecological environments and engineering infrastructures in cold regions. Avoidance of unnecessary anthropogenic changes in permafrost conditions is a practical approach to protect the permafrost environment. permafrost, Northeastern China, climate change, equivalent latitude model (ELM), prediction