Seismic Risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

• DOI: 10.1007/s13753-020-00292-9
• Publication Date: 2020-08-07T16:03:11Z
• Authors: Weihua Zhu; Kai Liu; Ming Wang; Elco E. Koks
• Keywords: Seismic risk; Natural hazard

Abstract Earthquakes pose a great risk to railway systems and services around the world. In China alone, earthquakes caused 88 rail service disruptions between 2012 2019. Here, we present first-of-its-kind methodology analyze seismic of system using an empirically derived train fragility curve. We demonstrate our Chinese system. doing so, generate set stochastic earthquake scenarios for based on national-scale seismicity model. Using disruption records, construct grounded curve that relates failure probability peak ground acceleration. By combining simulated earthquakes, curve, empirical flow data from 2016, quantitatively assess impact faced by The maximum trip loss could reach 2400 trips in response single event, accounting 34% national daily trips. Due spatially uneven distribution, different zones is highly heterogeneous does not always increase when hazard intensity increases. More specifically, results show lines located Qinghai-Tibet Xinjiang exhibit highest risk. generated curves map provide basis planning management decisions.