Validation of a Novel Forecasting Method for Estimating the Impact of Switching Pneumococcal Conjugate Programs: Evidence from Belgium

• DOI: 10.1007/s40121-021-00485-9
• Publication Date: 2021-07-12T03:10:35Z
• Authors: Michele R. Wilson; Cheryl L. McDade; Johnna E. Perdrizet; Annick Mignon; Raymond A. Farkouh; Matt D. Wasserman
• Keywords: Conjugate; Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine

Since 2010, 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have been available as part of infant national immunization programs. Belgium is one the few countries that implemented PCV13 (2007-2015), switched to PCV10 (2015-2018) then back (2018-present) after observing increases in disease. We assessed impacts both historical prospective PCV choice context Belgian health care system used this experience validate previously developed economic models.Using incidence (2007-2018) disease for children aged < 16 years, observed invasive (IPD) trends from surveillance data were estimate future a given PCV13- or PCV10-based program. compared with two modeled scenarios: (1) 2015 switch (2) hypothetical continuation 2015. Finally, we explored potential impact 2019 2023 by comparing three (3) continued use PCV10; (4) PCV13; (5) scenario which never PCV13.Model predictions underestimated 2018 100 IPD cases among ages years. Comparing 2 suggests would prevented 105 PCV10. Switching avert 625 through continuing Scenario switching resulted reduction 204 2016 PCV13.The findings study suggest published modeling results versus other may benefit PCV13. These highlight importance continually protecting against vaccine-preventable serotypes.