Modelling the Economic Impact and Ripple Effects of Disease Outbreaks

• DOI: 10.1007/s41660-020-00113-y
• Publication Date: 2020-03-10T17:12:08Z
• Authors: Krista Danielle S...; Kathleen B. Aviso
• Keywords: Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; General Chemical Engineering; Geography, Planning and Development; 1. No poverty; 02 engineering and technology; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law; Pollution; Short Technical Note; 3. Good health; Control and Systems Engineering; 8. Economic growth; 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering; Waste Management and Disposal

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has had alarming effects on human lives and the economies of affected countries. With the world’s manufacturing hubs experiencing a period of extended factory closures, the economic impact transcends territorial borders via global supply chains. This paper provides a roadmap on how to evaluate the vulnerability that cascades through the supply chain due to a disease outbreak at the firm level, national level, and global scale. The final extent of losses is not yet known, but the development of economic models combined with epidemiological models and network analysis techniques can yield more realistic estimates to select appropriate strategies in a timely manner.