Compartmentalized mathematical model to predict future number of active cases and deaths of COVID-19

• DOI: 10.1007/s42600-020-00084-6
• Publication Date: 2020-08-30T06:02:37Z
• Authors: Osmar Pinto Neto; José Clark Reis; Ana Carolina Bris...; Gustavo José Zamb...; Joabe Marcos de S...; Wellington Pedroso; Rodrigo Cunha de ...; Bruno de Matos Br...; Ellysson Oliveira...; Renato Amaro Zângaro
• Keywords: Pandemic; Epidemic model

In December 2019, China reported a series of atypical pneumonia cases caused by new Coronavirus, called COVID-19. response to the rapid global dissemination virus, on 11th Mars, World Health Organization (WHO) has declared outbreak pandemic. Considering this situation, paper intends analyze and improve current SEIR models better represent behavior COVID-19 accurately predict outcome pandemic in each social, economic, political scenario. We present generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model test it using optimization algorithm with data collected from WHO. The main results were: (a) Our was able fit either deaths or active all tested countries optimized coefficient values agreement recent reports; (b) when trying both sets at same time, good for most countries, but not all. (c) Using our model, large ranges input, we death 15, 30, 45, 60 days ahead errors order 5, 10, 20, 80%, respectively; (d) sudden changes number cannot be predicted unless outside sources are used. suggest that presented may used 15 total 5%. These minimized if social distance inputted into model.