Future changes in wind energy potential over China using RegCM4 under RCP emission scenarios

• DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.005
• Publication Date: 2021-06-30T08:54:33Z
• Authors: Jia Wu; Zhen-Yu Han; Yu-Ping Yan; Chao-Yang Sun; Ying Xu; Ying Shi
• Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways

To provide a scientific basis for the policies development of wind energy and towards goal carbon neutrality in China local governments, changes potential over were investigated based on bias-corrected ensemble mean (CENS) high-resolution dynamical downscaling projections using RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Firstly, evaluation indicated that CENS could better reproduce long-term interannual variability surface speed compared to original simulation outputs, providing reliable future projections. Projection averaged power density showed decreasing trend during 2020–2099 all four seasons under three scenarios, with significant (p < 0.05) magnitude apparent both autumn winter, characterized by an increase South decrease northwestern southwestern regions. In addition, 'very abundant' 'abundant' categories available located northern low-speed projected middle late 21st century. Although annual ranged from −1.14% −0.36% per decade among we believe that, considering strong inter-annual uncertainty involved, these would not substantially affect China's plans. Also note was low scenario some extent mitigate reduction future. Furthermore, suggest implementation newly developed technology should consider impact different sub-regions (e.g., region China), which is pivotal strategic planning this sector.