Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

• DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149
• Publication Date: 2021-01-18T05:20:29Z
• Authors: Hanyuan Zhang; Haiyan Song; Long Wen; Chang Liu
• Keywords: Distributed lag; Pandemic; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Delphi Method; Baseline (sea); Econometric model; Economic recovery

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.