Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105838
• Publication Date: 2021-08-28T18:56:10Z
• Authors: Ailiyaer Aihaiti; Zhihong Jiang; Lianhua Zhu; Wei Li; Qinglong You
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Based on the simulated temperature and precipitation from CMIP6 models, joint distribution characteristics of summer in China are described Copula approach. The occurrence risk compound extremes (i.e., warm/dry, warm/wet events) corresponding univariate events warm, wet, dry historical period compared; changes discussed under global warming 1.5 °C 2 °C. Results show that: 1) approach can describe probability observation model simulations most parts except for Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; 2) average warm wet increases by 2.3 1.16 times respectively, 2.83 1.29 respectively while decreases China; 3) 5.48 10.01 warming, respectively. Regions over Northern South experience increased about more than 8 times. warm/dry less increase magnitude with 1.82 2.04 two climates, highest is mainly located China. At an additional 0.5 to °C, regional 1.40 2.74 times, In areas, significantly greater that events. This indicates controlling up avoid intense Our work highlights may be underestimated if we only consider