The changing role of agriculture with economic structural change – The case of China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101504
• Publication Date: 2020-06-11T17:10:35Z
• Authors: Yumei Zhang; Xinshen Diao
• Keywords: Gross output

We analyze the implication of structural change to evolving role agriculture using China as an example. By combining a growth decomposition exercise with Input-Output (IO) and CGE model analyses China's seven input-output tables (IOTs) in 1987–2017, is quantitatively measured. The analysis shows that between 1978 2017, doubled size its total labor force, while absolute number agricultural workers falls this period. Rising productivity has led rapid without increasing employment, allowing indirectly contribute economywide through change. measurement economic integration IO approach helps explain why been accompanied by similar within each sector. general equilibrium effect on further assessed two models representing initial (1987) end (2017) years period 30 years. Similar shock induces smaller gain 2017 than 1987 models, gap these much difference agriculture's economy because stronger linkages rest 2017. About 0.5 unit additional nonagricultural value-added associated increase 1987, gains rise 2.7 Our emphasizes supply side for sustainable which continues play important but different from past when demand effects were stronger. Policies strengthen have emphasized recent China. Exploring should be part new strategy.