Climate change threatens the distribution of Liriodendron chinense: Evidence from China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100498
• Publication Date: 2024-06-08T18:41:48Z
• Authors: Tianning Zhang; Xiaofei Ma; Jie Li; Yuanyuan Li; Qi Chen; Changwang Zhang; Shenglei Fu
• Keywords: Social sciences (General); H1-99; 0106 biological sciences; Maximum entropy; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Biodiversity conservation; Future climate change; 01 natural sciences; CMIP6; Species distribution

Studying the potential responses of protected species to global climate change is important for conserving biodiversity. The decline and dieback Liriodendron chinense Sarg. (L. chinense), an ancient tree with high ecological economic value, have been observed in recent years. We aimed explore main environmental variables affecting this plant habitat its future distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Bioclimatic derived from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models, combined 363 occurrence records, multiple factors, were used predict mid late 21st century under shared socio–economic pathway (SSP) scenarios 126, 245, 585. MaxEnt model yielded excellent performance area curve value 0.95. Precipitation driest month was greatest contributor (50.33 %) distribution, Human Influence Index provided indispensable information prediction. loss largest SSP585-2090s (915,652 km2) smallest SSP126-2090s (271,989 km2). In contrast, gain (18,060 km2), which mainly occurred Yangtze River basin (10,625 SSP126 scenario most favorable survival L. chinense, gained least lost, range showed a notable trend northward migration century. An extreme warming will threaten sparse refuge Southeast basins by 2090s. These results provide theoretical basis developing policies conserve face change.