There are at least two kinds of probability matching: Evidence from a secondary task

• DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2010.11.009
• Publication Date: 2010-12-09T15:10:14Z
• Authors: A. Ross Otto; Eric G. Taylor; Arthur B. Markman
• Keywords: Cognition; Decision Making; 05 social sciences; Humans; 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences; Models, Theoretical; 16. Peace & justice; Probability

Probability matching is a suboptimal behavior that often plagues human decision-making in simple repeated choice tasks. Despite decades of research, recent studies cannot find agreement on what choice strategies lead to probability matching. We propose a solution, showing that two distinct local choice strategies-which make different demands on executive resources-both result in probability-matching behavior on a global level. By placing participants in a simple binary prediction task under dual- versus single-task conditions, we find that individuals with compromised executive resources are driven away from a one-trial-back strategy (utilized by participants with intact executive resources) and towards a strategy that integrates a longer window of past outcomes into the current prediction. Crucially, both groups of participants exhibited probability-matching behavior to the same extent at a global level of analysis. We suggest that these two forms of probability matching are byproducts of the operation of explicit versus implicit systems.