Research on medium- and long-term electricity demand forecasting under climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.02.210
• Publication Date: 2022-03-10T10:32:45Z
• Authors: Hongyu Zhang; Bo Chen; Ying Li; Junwei Geng; Cong Li; Wenyi Zhao; Haobo Yan
• Keywords: Consumption; Heating degree day; Mains electricity

Global warming and frequent extreme heat wave events have led to changes in people's energy consumption habits, which turn has a significant impact on electricity consumption. Accurate forecasts of can provide scientific support for the capability improvement power supply service. To meet needs long-term system planning Beijing, variety empirical models estimate temperature–power response function Beijing are adopted predict future under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The main results summarized as follows: (1) With measurement, relationship between temperature present U-shaped curve. Taking linear model an example, 1 degree-day increase CDD will lead 0.053 million kWh growth Beijing's consumption, while HDD rise 0.09 (2) level show rising trend with fluctuation. In 2060, reach 219 290.4 billion kWh.