The optimal time-scale of Standardized Precipitation Index for early identifying summer maize drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101350
• Publication Date: 2023-02-22T17:09:01Z
• Authors: Yuanda Zhang; Peijuan Wang; Yuye Chen; Jianying Yang; Dingrong Wu; Yuping Ma; Zhiguo Huo; Shuxian Liu
• Keywords: Time-scales; Physical geography; QE1-996.5; Early drought identification; Huang-Huai-Hai region; Standardized Precipitation Index; Summer maize; 0207 environmental engineering; Geology; 02 engineering and technology; GB3-5030

The Huang-Huai-Hai region (HHH). optimal time-scales of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for early drought identification was determined by using meteorological data and agrometeorological disaster observation records summer maize in HHH this study. Two performance measures were used, one is accuracy, defined as the proportion samples identified SPI total samples, other sensitivity, ratio number recognized to samples. can be calculated with only precipitation at any time-scales, mainly including 3-, 6-, 12-, or 24-month periods previous studies. However, growth period 3–4 months, more than 3-month may not applicable identification. Additionally, considered origin agricultural drought. It important identify signals advance time-scale avoid crop yield reduction. Results showed that 10-day (SPI10) index highest accuracy (95.8 %) sensitivity (77.72 %). most SPI10 0–16 days ahead observed onset date. findings provide theoretical guidance warning near real-time monitoring disasters HHH.