Modeling streamflow response under changing environment using a modified SWAT model with enhanced representation of CO2 effects

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101547
• Publication Date: 2023-10-13T17:57:56Z
• Authors: Baogui Li; Lili Tan; Xueliang Zhang; Junyu Qi; Gary W. Marek; Yingxuan Li; Xiaojie Dong; Wenjie Zhao; Ting Chen; Puyu Feng; De Li Liu; Raghavan Srinivasan; Yong Chen
• Keywords: SWAT model; Flood forecasting

Haihe River Basin (HRB) in North China Plain. Changes streamflow due to climate change and human activities are highly uncertain. An improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model equipped with a dynamic CO2 input method was used quantify the environmental impacts on HRB. Streamflow changes were analyzed based 22 bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 during two 30-year periods of middle (2041–2070) end (2071–2100) 21st century relative historical period (1971–2000). Long-term simulations annual HRB demonstrated substantial discrepancies between constant methods SSP1-2.6 scenarios, which highlighted importance using for simulations. Spatio-temporal analysis SWAT revealed that generally increased four emission scenarios compared period. In HRB, downstream plains higher than upstream mountains, this more evident highest scenario SSP5-8.5. Monthly showed considerable intra-annual variability greater from July November. The strongest increment projected SSP3-7.0 indicating flood risk would possibly increase late century.