Model-derived causal explanations are inherently constrained by hidden assumptions and context: The example of Baltic cod dynamics

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105489
• Publication Date: 2022-08-18T09:28:24Z
• Authors: Thomas Banitz; Maja Schlüter; Emilie Lindkvist; Sonja Radosavljevic; Lars-Göran Johansson; Petri Ylikoski; Rodrigo Martínez-...; Volker Grimm
• Keywords: Causation; Causal model; Causal structure; Causality; Causal analysis; Complex system; Ecological systems theory

Models are widely used for investigating cause-effect relationships in complex systems. However, often different models yield diverging causal claims about specific phenomena. Therefore, critical reflection is needed on insights derived from modeling. As an example, we here compare ecological dealing with the dynamics and collapse of cod Baltic Sea. The addressed questions, but also vary system conceptualization complexity. With each model, certain factors mechanisms were analyzed detail, while others included remained unchanged, or excluded. Model-based analyses same thus inherently constrained by diverse implicit assumptions possible determinants causation. In developing recommendations human action, awareness this strong context dependence claims, which not entirely clear. Model comparisons can be supplemented integrating findings multiple confronting observed patterns.