Realtime case study simulations of transmission of Pancreas Disease (PD) in Norwegian salmonid farming for disease control purposes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100502
• Publication Date: 2021-09-27T13:55:39Z
• Authors: Britt Bang Jensen; Katharine R. Dean; Ragnar Bang Huseby; Magne Aldrin; Lars Qviller
• Keywords: Alphavirus Infections; Norway; Disease transmission; Aquatic epidemiology; Pancreatic Diseases; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Aquaculture; 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences; 3. Good health; 0403 veterinary science; Fish Diseases; Scenario simulation; Disease control; 13. Climate action; Animals; 14. Life underwater; Pancreas Disease; Pancreas; Salmonidae

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease caused by Salmonid Alphavirus (SAV). It affects farmed salmonids in the North Atlantic, and leads to reduced feed intake increased mortality with production welfare as consequence. In 2013, estimated cost of an outbreak on average salmon farm was about 6.6 mil €. Norway, PD has been notifiable since 2008, regulations mitigate spread are place. However, despite regulations, 140-170 farms affected every year. The aquaculture industry growing continuously, introducing new geographical areas, fish moved between hydrographically separated zones for trade slaughter. All such movements relocations need be approved competent authorities. Thus, there demand support farmers authorities when making decisions management especially effect moving infected fish. We have used disease-transmission model outbreak-simulation real time assessing probability transmission from that gets PD. also simulated effects three different control-regimes: no stamping-out, delayed stamping-out or immediate surrounding farms. Simulations showed stamping out led effective containment outbreak. No up 32.1% within 100 km index become effected. data building scenario simulations, results illustrate risk assessment horizontal must undertaken case-by-case basis, because place large influence transmission.