The effective reproductive number: Modeling and prediction with application to the multi-wave Covid-19 pandemic

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100708
• Publication Date: 2023-07-20T17:44:46Z
• Authors: Razvan G. Romanescu; Songdi Hu; Douglas Nanton; Mahmoud Torabi; Olivier Tremblay-...; Md Ashiqul Haque
• Keywords: Pandemic; Basic reproduction number; Epidemic model; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Classical compartmental models of infectious disease assume that spread occurs through a homogeneous population. This produces poor fits to real data, because individuals vary in their number epidemiologically-relevant contacts, and hence ability transmit disease. In particular, network theory suggests super-spreading events tend happen more often at the beginning an epidemic, which is inconsistent with homogeneity assumption. this paper we argue flexible decay shape for effective reproductive (Rt) indexed by susceptible fraction (St) theory-informed modeling choice, better captures progression incidence over human populations. This, turn, retrospective fits, as well accurate prospective predictions observed epidemic curves. We extend framework fit multi-wave epidemics, accommodate public health restrictions on mobility. demonstrate performance model doing prediction study two years SARS-CoV2 pandemic.