Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate

• DOI: 10.1016/j.fecs.2024.100180
• Publication Date: 2024-03-08T05:22:47Z
• Authors: Zhengchao Ren; Lei Liu; Fang Yin; Xiaoni Liu
• Keywords: 0303 health sciences; 03 medical and health sciences; Ecology; Global warming; Vegetation classification; CSCS; Potential natural vegetation; Predicted model; QH540-549.5

Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide. However, there limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions, transitional processes, underlying mechanisms of global vegetation, particularly in case ongoing climate warming. In this study, we visualize pattern inter-transition procedure PNV, analyse shifting distances directions PNV under influence climatic disturbance, explore response to temperature precipitation fluctuations. To achieve this, utilize meteorological data, mainly precipitation, from six phases: Last Inter-Glacial (LIG), Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), Present Day (PD), 2030 (2021–2040) 2090 (2081–2100), employ widely-accepted comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) classification. We find that spatial patterns five groups (forest, shrubland, savanna, grassland tundra) generally align with their respective ecotopes, although distributions have shifted due fluctuating precipitation. Notably, observe an unexpected transition between tundra savanna despite geographical distance. The shifts distance direction are driven by heterogeneity among these each group. Indeed, observed different suggests they may possess varying capacities adjust withstand impacts changing climate. mutual transitions shift tendencies its mechanism face climate, as revealed can significantly contribute development strategies mitigating warming promoting re-vegetation degraded regions