Planted seedling survival in a post-wildfire landscape: From experimental planting to predictive probabilistic surfaces

• DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120524
• Publication Date: 2022-10-01T15:50:27Z
• Authors: Christopher Marsh; Joseph L. Crockett; Daniel Krofcheck; Alisa Keyser; Craig D. Allen; Marcy Litvak; Matthew D. Hurteau
• Keywords: Microclimate; Reforestation; Windthrow; Robinia

Across the southwestern United States, high-severity wildfire is causing increasingly large areas of tree mortality and removing seed sources required for natural regeneration these formerly conifer-dominated landscapes. Planting seedlings can accelerate reforestation, but in semi-arid US, survival planted conifer typically low. Our research examined how post-fire planting success influenced by climate, topographic, biotic, microclimate factors. We present data on a seedling experiment within footprint 2011 Las Conchas Fire northern New Mexico. 768 four species: ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), piñon (P. edulis), white strobiformis), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) an area burned at densely populated Mexico locust (Robinia neomexicana) other shrub species. established experimental plots stratified aspect, either northerly or southerly, cover, under open, collected topographical measurements over three years. Mean 3-year period all species treatments was 20%. Using variables site-level indices piecewise exponential model, we first determined factors species, finding that describing incoming solar radiation, related to vapor pressure deficit, i.e., seasonal maximums, presence increased hazard while shade, moisture availability, slope reduced hazard. Following our experiment, additional 1145 seedlings, USFS, were surveyed their locations recorded. Adding seedlings' experimentally used boosted regression models determine probability as product indices, then extrapolated findings wider landscape, producing spatial projection probabilistic function readily available data, with mean AUC value 0.63. Both sets analyses highlight importance landscape heterogeneity shaping microclimatic environments affecting predictable manner, receiving less radiation more promoting survival. results demonstrate using fine-scale microtopography shapes environments, future plantings increase post-wildfire